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Market Radar for July 1st and 2nd Upside Call
posted by daytraderockstar
Jun 30, 2015 8:26 pm
From this past weekend's Market Radar till now when Greece has officially defaulted on there payment to the IMF the market has move in a highly expected manner, not because on the surface this seem like a very bad situation, but technically we perfectly setup for a pullback. I consistently map out the market day by day based on very strict "High probability Pattern" and a core set of indicators combined to give us the best opportunity of a tradeable market move. Nothing in the charts have proven this move has not been expected or in some cases not welcomed. The coinciding event of the Greek default in my opinion is a random coincidence but enough to exaggerate the move lower making the market feed on the added focus of this event.
I have always said patterns and technical levels will be skewed and distorted and in most cases fail do to this outside event. This event has done damage to a lot of stocks and options but the one thing it hasn't done is break from the norm of the current daily SPX (S&P500)
Below is 60 Minute chart of the SPX and as you can see it is a thing of beauty when looked at from a chartist perspective.We left off setting up in a bearish flag on the 60 min chart and I would actually like to see this break down early in the morning. Best levels to watch are 2050-2040. I will be able to narrow it down more tomorrow as the patterns set up.
*** Note..As news will be breaking tomorrow morning and overnight things might move before the official open here in the U.S So the downward break is something I will be prepared for but we could move right up from here if news comes across in a positive light. Which ever and how it happens the overall call is for a reversal higher tomorrow.. either out of the gate or a break down and reversal.
Below is the Daily Chart and you can see the Daily Stochastic Oscillator will be setting up July 1st and 2nd this has pretty much been a major signal for the markets (Remind me to talk about something I am just seeing on the chart)
All this and more is discussed in tomorrow Market Radar You can view that here https://youtu.be/-tyGJVmWavc
Now we are not there 100% but i am going out on the proverbial limb to make the reversal call for tomorrow (preferably late morning)
Some other interesting tidbits
From our friend Jeff Hirsh @ Stock Trader's Almanac
Read full Article Here
"July’s first trading day is the fourth best performing first trading day of all twelve months with DJIA gaining a cumulative 852.55 points since 1998. Over the past 21 years, DJIA’s first trading day of July has produced gains 81.0% of the time with an average gain of 0.49%. S&P 500 has advanced 85.7% of the time (average gain 0.45%). NASDAQ has been slightly weaker at 76.2% (0.25% average gain). No other day of the year exhibits this amount of across-the-board strength which makes a solid case for declaring July 1 the most bullish day of the year over the past 21 years. "
and one last thing Focus will be on the Referendum Vote this Sunday if no deal is reached before that. I think there is a good chance they will come to some sort of agreement before the vote but if not the "Polls" will play a part in market action as a "NO" vote will be taken as a sign that Greece want to leave the EU and a YES would probably but not necessarily mean a change in the current government.
So the news will still play a major role in the short term trade. Caution is needed.
See you in the Market tomorrow
China Rate Cut and Greece Deadline.. This week's watch list is out but Extreme caution early in week
posted by daytraderockstar
Jun 27, 2015 7:12 pm
Greece and China will have an effect on the markets early this week and because of that I feel the risk of calling a technical move is much higher then average. There are a lot of reasons for a bigger pull back in the markets and a lot of people looking for that pull back. Could Greece be the catalyst? I don't think we will get to see the effects of a Greek exit but in either case this week will be harder to predict. Sunday when futures open will give us our first clue on the effect of the recent events discussed in the video.
This weeks HPS Video is updated but will not have any new setups until after we get past Tuesday, Right now between Greece breaking off negotiations over a new bailout and the deadline of Tuesday to see if the European central bank will continue to provide emergency funding to the Greek Banking System.
and the the breaking news of yet another Chinese rate cut. Which some would think would lead to a pop in the Asian Markets Sunday and for that pop to carry over to the US futures open.
The market will be in for a pretty interesting open Sunday night and Monday morning. It is fun to guess how this will play out and I will definitely share my thoughts Monday live on the air.
As for the technical side of things as you can review from last week's midweek video and charts I was very concerned about the rising wedge on the 60 min chart and the measured move target back down to 2095-2098 in the SPX S&P 500 Index.
From Wednesday the 24th
"60 minute time frame is oversold and this has been a great timing tool but Greece overhangs everything. The charts have set up in a nice rising wedge pattern out of the larger channel breakout. The pullback today was expected but the energy seem a bit intense. Levels below on spx 2098-2095 look very nice. But not calling a perfect touch as the 60 min and 5 min are setting up for another move higher.. So recap.. Daily embedded and 60 ready, but many stocks over extended. Feel Greece will be a factor in the next move but not guessing how that will play out."
Now lets look at where we are now
So whats next? News will play a part my thoughts are in the videos and the update.
But in short to much risk to guess or take on any new positions other then some hedges and even those in some way are a gamble. Positive news could pop and then drop us and negative news could do just the opposite as the markets might be though with the games being played behind the scenes.
and this week's Market Radar Video can be found here http://benefits.daytradingradio.com/marketradar/
Don't forget Futures open 6:00pm est Sunday Night tune in to get the first reaction to all the news
Market Radar and HPS update for Thursday and Friday
posted by daytraderockstar
Jun 24, 2015 9:12 pm
60 minute time frame is oversold and this has been a great timing tool but Greece overhangs everything. The charts have set up in a nice rising wedge pattern out of the larger channel breakout. The pullback today was expected but the energy seem a bit intense. Levels below on spx 2098-2095 look very nice. But not calling a perfect touch as the 60 min and 5 min are setting up for another move higher.. So recap.. Daily embedded and 60 ready, but many stocks over extended. Feel Greece will be a factor in the next move but not guessing how that will play out.
The Update HPS video is located in the HPS video Section here
There is not much new as the markets look for some resolution coming out of the Greek debt talks.
New Watch List is released for Week of June 22nd
posted by daytraderockstar
Jun 19, 2015 7:43 pm
First A big Happy Fathers Day to all the Dads. Next week looks great for the watchlist.
I updated the watchlist into individual videos to make it easier to focus on each setup. I have 2 best Bets but could easily be more.
Greece will be under focus again early next week but as you can see in the video and the calls this week the market has seems to have gotten bored with the outcome. I still expect sudden reactions to any substantial news, but for most part I would not expect any big market correction or change in direction.
The 60 Minute chart continues to be key in my timing on when to be more aggressive long or short term hedged. The chart below shows us setting up again for a rotation possibly later in the day Monday.
Market Radar Video for Monday http://youtu.be/2oFfLFjZxf0
The list of HPS plays this week is big and I made an individual video for each one so you don't have to bother with ones you are not interested in.
The HPS video Tab contains the Market Radar Video and Review and the HPS list contains the separate videos. each is about 3-5 Minutes long
I circles where to find the Videos
Should be a great Week coming up
Happy Fathers Day
Market Radar and Updated Watchlist for Midweek
posted by daytraderockstar
Jun 16, 2015 6:21 pm
The First video is the Market radar for the 2nd part of the week, If it wasn't for the potential market moving news I would be more active as a lot of stocks are setting up in out HPS zones. The million dollar question is what happens with Greece and how does the market react to it. This is gone over in the Market Radar Video below.
And here is the Direct Link https://youtu.be/0IjJbrCZd4A
The next video is a HPS Watchlist Update going over all the stocks on the watchlist in a fast update. I have 2 best bets for tomorrow but news can effect any outcome and I continue to want to get the Greek Situation behind us.
Here is the members HPS update Video http://daytradingradio.com//10for1000
It is the second video down on the list
Futures just opened back up .50 ($ES_F)
Big Events this week and HPS Watchlist
posted by daytraderockstar
Jun 14, 2015 5:52 pm
First of All Futures open in a few minutes and I will be doing some coverage of the opening 6:00pm est till about 8-9. So if your around tune in a join me. We had some news today that can effect this open and that is why I want to get a early look at things for tomorrow. The news was basically no Greek bailout deal and time is running out fast..
Greek default fears rise as ‘11th-hour’ talks collapse
"Greek negotiators, including Nikos Pappas, aide-de-camp to Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, left the headquarters of the European Commission only 45 minutes after entering the building for what were characterised as a “last try” by one of the eurozone officials involved in the talks."
Talks aimed at reaching an 11th-hour deal between Greek ministers and their bailout creditors collapsed on Sunday evening after a new economic reform proposal submitted by Athens was deemed inadequate to continue negotiations
Well things will get bumpy and I did a market radar video just to convey my thoughts of not trying to guess how this is going to play out but let this week get behind us and don't try to be a hero.
The Watch list is a great on with 3 best bets, but I stress the need for caution and even though the HPS plays are near perfect the news can break us down out of these patterns.
This is this weeks Members Only Watch List Video because I did the extended version I time stamped the Stocks on the link above the video so you can reference the stocks you need.
The Market Radar is basically the outlook for the week and that can be found here
Futures open in a few minutes I am going on the air.
expecting a gap down
Next Week Watch List is out.. Lots of Triggers Today
posted by daytraderockstar
May 29, 2015 5:27 pm
I've been plotting some great channels over the last week and like clockwork most of them triggered there buy zones today. This is very interesting development. Each time we get down to an area of interest in the market and in HPS stocks the game of musical chairs looses a few seats. I made a point on the video discussing how difficult it is sometimes to buy into this weakness as human nature has us chasing positive results not negative action. The Successful Seasoned trader takes the opposite approach. The successful trader will have to wade into battle at these levels. This is hard to do as we all know, but it's ok to scale in small and that's what I am doing today on some of these new positions.
Anyway I am heading on a vacation next week and RPM will be hosting The watch list video is in the long version this week and will return to individual HPS videos next week when i return. The watch list Video can be seen here.
The HPS Charts and Alerts can be found here http://hps.daytradingradio.com/
I will be checking in as much as i can in the mornings.
Check out today's Es action. Great patterns and Swings
See everyone Tuesday
Options Roundtable Wednesday MAY 26th 2015 11:00 am- 2:00 pm est
posted by daytraderockstar
May 26, 2015 10:08 pm
DATE: Wednesday May 27th 2015 11:00 am
Participants: Joel (Trade4pay) Brian (Bfiguy) Jerry (jerryjr) Michael (michaelD) Mark (Oobie) Anthony (Anthony) and More..
This is a basic intro to Options and below are some notes to help understand and prepare for our guest speakers. This will be open discussion focused on outline you see below. These will be recorded and posted in the Members Forum, This will be also Part 1 of a continuing series. Some of the terms will be very basic. But we will have great speakers who actively trade options and have a great deal of knowledge and tips to share.
Outline of Discussion:
What Terms you will Learn:
In the Money (ITM)
At the Money (ATM)
Out of the Money (OTM)
1. What is an Option?
An option is a standardized contract providing for the right - but not the obligation - to buy or sell an underlying financial instrument. In our context, this underlying is a stock or exchange traded fund (ETF). The contract controls 100 shares, and is good until a defined expiration date. The price at which shares can be bought or sold also is defined by the contract, and is known as the strike price.
There are two types of options: calls and puts. You can buy or sell either type. If you buy an option you are the holder of the contract and considered to be "long," while if you sell an option you are the "writer" of the contract and considered to be "short."
The buyer of a call has the right to buy the underlying security (e.g. 100 shares of Google) at the strike price on or before the expiration date. The seller of a call has the obligation to sell the shares, if asked.
The buyer of a put has the right to sell the underlying security (e.g. 100 shares of Google) at the strike price on or before the expiration date. The seller of a put has the obligation to buy the shares, if asked.
2. What is Premium.
In exchange for the right to buy ("call") or sell ("put") an underlying security on or before the expiration date, the purchaser of an option pays a premium. The price of the contract is known as the debit, and it is the purchaser's maximum risk. On the other side of the trade, the seller of the option receives the premium as a credit to his/her brokerage account, but is obligated to buy (in the case of a short put) or sell (in the instance of a short call) the underlying shares if the purchaser exercises the contract. Brokerages hold cash from the premium as a guarantee against short positions.
The strike price, or exercise price, of an option determines whether that contract is in the money, at the money, or out of the money. If the strike price of a call option is less than the current market price of the underlying security, the call is said to be in the money because the holder of the call has the right to buy the stock at a price which is less than the price he would have to pay to buy the stock in the market. Likewise, if a put option has a strike price that is greater than the current market price of the underlying security, it is also said to be in the money because the holder of this put has the right to sell the stock at a price which is greater than the price he would receive in the market. The converse of in the money is, not surprisingly, out of the money. If the strike price equals the current market price, the option is said to be at the money.
3. What is Intrinsic Value and Time Value.
The premium of an option has two components, intrinsic value and time value.
Intrinsic value describes the amount the stock price is above the strike price (for calls), or below the strike price (for puts). Therefore the amount by which an option is in the money is intrinsic value. It is also the value of the contract at expiration.
Time value is defined as the option premium minus the intrinsic value. It is the amount that you pay for the possibility that it will be worth more in the future. Therefore an at-the money or out-of-the-money option has no intrinsic value and only time value.
4. Buying Calls.
You want leverage? Buying calls gives you leverage over 100 shares of an underlying stock (or ETF) at the strike price until the expiration date. Long calls are used to profit from upward moves in the underlying.
Again using Google for an example, the GOOG December 500 call option gives you the right to buy 100 shares of GOOG for $500 per share up until the expiration date in December. You would do this with the expectation that the price of the option will rise, usually through the rise in the price of the underlying stock.
5. Exiting Long Calls
When a call has been purchased, the position can be closed in one of three ways:
- Selling the call - Once an option is bought it can be sold at any time. This is the most common way of exiting a long position, and the only way of exiting a long call that captures any remaining time value in the option.
- Letting it expire - If a call gets all the way to expiration, it will expire worthless if it is out-of the money (when the strike price is above the stock price). If the stock price is above the strike price by $.01 or more, it will be automatically exercised and shares will be delivered to your brokerage account. Long calls are almost always sold before expiring, since at that point they will have lost all time value.
- Exercising your call - Utilizing the "right to buy" that is inherent in the call contract is known as "exercising" the option. This results in your brokerage delivering shares of the stock to you at the strike price. Options are rarely bought with the intention of exercising the underlying right. Taking this course also forgoes any remaining time value in the option.
5. Buying Puts
Want to profit from the downside? Puts give the buyer the right to sell a specific number of shares (usually 100) of an underlying stock at the strike price until the expiration date. Long puts will profit if the underlying price falls, all else held equal. Buying puts therefore offers a limited-risk way to profit from the downside. This also makes them a way to protect positions as insurance
Exiting Long Puts
When a put has been purchased, the position can be closed in one of three ways:
- Selling the put - Once a put is bought it can be sold at any time, and this is the most common way of exiting a long position. This is the only way of exiting a long position that captures any remaining time value in the option.
- Letting it expire - If a put gets all the way to expiration, it will expire, worthless if it is out of the money (when the stock price is above the strike price - See Options Pricing). If the stock price is below the strike price by $.01 or more, it will be automatically exercised and shares will be "taken" from your brokerage account. Long options are almost always sold before expiring, as at that point they will have lost all time value.
- Exercising the option - Utilizing the "right to sell" that is inherent in the put contract is known as exercising the option. This delivers shares of the stock from your account at the strike price. Options are rarely bought with the intention of exercising the underlying right. Taking this course also forgoes any remaining time value in the option.
6. What is an Option Chain and How ro read one.
For any given option contract, we need to know the most recent prices and other factors. Option chains show data for a given underlying's different strike prices and expiration months.
· At the top, we have the stock information and then different expiration months. In this case we are looking at Intel (INTC) April 08. ( I know it's 08 but i put this together fast I clipped some old examples)
- Down the middle are the strike prices. Calls are on the left, puts on the right.
- Contracts in the money are yellow, and out of the money are white.
Each strike lists:
- The price of the last trade ("Last")
- The price at which there are willing buyers (the "Bid")
- The price at which a contract is offered for sale (the "Ask" or "Offer")
- The volume of the day's trading ("Vol")
- The contract's "open interest" ("Open Int"), which tells us how many active contracts there are for a given month and strike.
High open interest figures, generally near the at-the-money strikes, tell us there are more prospective trading partners who could accept your price. But note that volume does not equal open interest, since some trades are made to close positions.
Options Roundtable will begin Wednesday 11:00am and should wrap up around 2:00pm or later
Breaking Briefs -- New Tunes Tuesday
posted by briguy
May 26, 2015 3:45 pm
What you turn on When the markets turn off. Join us for news, earnings, and tunes.
============== Which Way Do We Go, George? ==============
U.S. stocks were recording their steepest fall in three weeks in midday trading on Tuesday, as a host of positive economic data increased the likelihood of a rate hike in the near term and sent the dollar soaring.
The dollar was hovering at a one-month peak against a basket of major currencies <.DXY> and at one point gained as much as 1.38 percent, pushing for its largest daily move in almost two years.
"A strong dollar is going to hurt exports and the revenue line of companies, which wasn't strong to begin with," said Rick Fier, director of trading at Conifer Securities in New York.
The overall economy is gradually firming, with reports on Tuesday showing business investment spending plans increasing solidly in April, consumer confidence perking up this month and house prices extending gains in March.
The buoyant data comes after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on Friday that the central bank could raise interest rates this year if the economy keeps improving as expected. The comments kept the prospects of a September rate increase high
.Yellen's comments and the dollar's rise have pushed the monthly gain for each of the three major U.S. stock indexes to below 2 percent in the past two trading sessions.
Plus, it's New Tunes Tuesday ... we'll check out some new music out this week.
See you tonight !!
During show, you can reach me at:
New Best bets for Next week have been uploaded. HPS is out
posted by daytraderockstar
May 22, 2015 6:28 pm
First, I hope everyone gets to relax for the next few days. You won't have to research much as all the good setups are on this week's HPS list. :-) Remember how we came in and scooped up the railroads and had some nice trades off of the lower channel lines. This week we have another great group doing the same thing. Looks like we should get our bounce mid week at the latest.
I put out some extra video's this week including the HPS individual videos. The Main Radar video can be found as usual here http://daytradingradio.com//10for1000
and the individual HPS vids can be found on the HPS page here http://hps.daytradingradio.com/
We have been trading a lot of Channel recently and I did a little review video to show you what to look for..
Lots of great trades coming.. Have a great Memorial Day